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CompuTrak Handicapper 2005 builds upon the proven success of previous versions. Further research now gives you an OddsLine and Summary for fast, profit producing data, a rating that lets you judge the present Form of a horse, an Improve Number showing you how the capability of the horse has changed from race to race, and the “Magic” Number that combines the Boxer Number and Speed Rating to give you an overall horse rating.

You can see the complete list of the CompuTrak Handicapper 2005 output information in Appendix A of the “Users Manual”, and examples of how this information is presented to you in Appendix B.

Click on the links below for brief discussions of some of the CompuTrak Handicapper 2005 outputs to see how the overall power of the program can point you to the winning horses, and to see how the outputs are shown to you.

OddsLine
Predicted Finish Time
Early Speed
Horse Friction
Boxer Number
Form
Speed Rating
Horse Improvement
Magic Number
Output Appearance

OddsLine

Early Speed, Magic Number, and Form (see discussions below), are three exceptionally important descriptors of a horse’s capability. They are combined mathematically to generate the probability of winning for each of the horses in the race. The probability of winning is then converted into the odds.

Clearly, the lower the odds, the higher the probability of the horse winning. This is very useful as part of your decision making as to whether, and how much, to wager.

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Predicted Finish Time

Predicted Finish Time is one of the more important CompuTrak outputs. After all it is the horse with the best finish time that wins the race. CompuTrak obtains this important value using data such as position and times at the internal calls and finish, track variant, and weight carried, in the mathematical equations found in “Engineering Analysis of thorough bred racing. Predicted Finish Time is a “relative” finish time which compares the finish time of a horse relative to the other horses. All previous pace lines have been normalized for track variant, track par, and weight carried, so all the horses are placed on an equal footing for today’s race. Since the variant of today’s track is not known in advance, the Predicted Finish Times are relative, ranking the horses’ finish times relative to each other. The bottom line: The lower the Predicted Finish Time, the better.

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  Early Speed

Knowing Early Speed gives you another handicapping advantage. This is especially true in short sprints. The Early Speed provided by CompuTrak is unique, because it gives you the horse’s speed at the beginning of the race, unlike. other systems which approximate this speed by using the time and distance to the first call.

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  Horse Friction

One of the more unique CompuTrak outputs arising from the application of engineering principles to horse racing. It is well known that friction is an engineering concept that measures impediment to motion. The paper, “Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing” derived the “friction” associated with horses.

Horse Friction is very useful in handicapping because it is a true measure of the closing capability of a horse, obtained from the data in a horse’s pace line

Some handicappers examine the “lengths behind” history of a horse in a race, and by seeing the number of lengths behind the front-runner decreasing, conclude the horse is a closer. That kind of reasoning is not necessarily true because the decrease in lengths behind the front-runner could be caused by the front-runner slowing down, rather than by the horse in question closing on his own.

Lower Friction numbers indicate a stronger closing capability of the horse. This means the horse is better able to retain his speed, which, of course, is also a measure of his stamina. The Friction value is obtained without reference to other horses in the race; it is a measure of the closing capability of the horse itself.

A negative value of Friction means that the horse sped up during the race. This is more common in turf races than those raced on the dirt.

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  Boxer Number

The mathematics and derivation of this overall horse rating is shown in the “Addendum to Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing.” The rating is based on the comparison of Early Speed and Friction, (closing ability,) for a standard horse, with that of the horse being handicapped. The higher the number the better.

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  Form

Most of the data about a horse is historical informing us about how a horse has performed in the past. A critical aspect for successful handicapping is to assess the present form of a horse so that we might know what to expect of the horse today. With a special algorithm using races and workouts, CompuTrak gives you a rating of the horse’s present Form.. At times, when combined with other CompuTrak information, Form can be the deciding factor for choosing the winning horse.

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  Speed Rating

A rating that helps determine whether the horse ran an “honest” race. Using Early Speed, and Time, adjusted for Race Distance, the rating assesses whether a horse truly “tried” in a previous race. If this rating for a horse is appreciably lower than that in other races, or when compared with that of the other horses, the effort the horse put into the race may be suspect.

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  Horse Improvement

While it is generally true that horses have a particular running style, front runner, closer, etc., to some extent, a horse can make a trade off between early speed and closing capability. Without there being any inherent improvement in capability, for example, a horse might increase his early speed at the price of slowing down sooner. The reverse is also true, the horse, without any change in inherent capability might start off slower but maintain that early speed longer.

One indication that a horse is truly improving in capability is when both Early Speed, and closing ability, (Friction) are improving. By using a form of the relationship between Early Speed and Friction, CompuTrak gives you a rating number which shows, from one race to the next, whether the horse has improved, or degraded in capability as determined by the data from the two races that are compared.

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  Magic Number

Named the “Magic” number because of the way it often points to a winner. It is derived by combining the Boxer Number and Speed Rating.

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  Output Appearance

CompuTrak has three output screens for viewing and printing. They are: the OddsLine and Summary; a more extensive report; and charts (graphs).

The OddsLine and Summary produces successful handicapping, and it is easy to use the odds it produces and the key information in its summary to choose good risk to reward horses on which to wager.

The Extensive text has additional information, that will allow you to do the more in-depth-handicapping that may be necessary from time-to-time. In addition to the fundamental CompuTrak data, it includes a wealth of auxiliary information, passed through from the basic BRIS/DRF input data. (See Appendix B of User's Manual.)

The third output brings charts (graphs) to you, and also, for convenience, includes much of the key information from the Extensive report. The charts are a graphical representation of Early Speed, Friction, and Boxer Number, paceline by paceline for every horse., providing you with a “picture” of how the horse’s capability and overall performance has been changing over time. (See Appendix B of User's Manual.)

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